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The '''Lucas aggregate supply function''' or '''Lucas 'surprise' supply function''', based on the '''Lucas imperfect information model''', is a representation of [[aggregate supply]] based on the work of [[New classical macroeconomics|new classical]] economist [[Robert Lucas, Jr.|Robert Lucas]]. The model states that [[economic output]] is a function of money or price "surprise."  The model accounts for the empirically based trade off between output and prices represented by the [[Phillips curve]], but the function breaks from the Phillips curve since only unanticipated price level changes lead to changes in output. The model accounts for empirically observed short-run correlations between output and prices, but maintains the [[neutrality of money]] (the absence of a price or money supply relationship with output and employment) in the long-run. The [[Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition|policy ineffectiveness proposition]] extends the model by arguing that, since people with [[rational expectations]] cannot be systematically surprised by [[monetary policy]], monetary policy cannot be used to systematically influence the economy.  
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== Background ==
New classical made its first attempt to model aggregate supply in Lucas and [[Leonard Rapping]] (1969).<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2005), 233.</ref>  In this earlier model, supply (specifically labor supply) is a direct function of real wages: More work will be done when real wages are high and less when they are low. Under this model, unemployment is "voluntary."<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2005), 233.</ref>  In 1972 Lucas made a second attempt at modelling aggregate demand.<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2005), 233.</ref>  This attempt drew from [[Milton Friedman]]'s [[natural rate hypothesis]] that challenged the Phillips curve.<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2003), 453.</ref> Lucas supported his original, theoretical paper that outlined the surprise based supply curve with an empirical paper that demonstrated that countries with a history of stable price levels exhibit larger effects in response to monetary policy than countries where prices have been volatile.<ref>Snowdon and Vane, 453.</ref>
 
Lucas's model dominated new classical economic business cycle theory until 1982 when [[real business cycle theory]] replaced Lucas's theory of a money driven business cycle with a strictly supply based model that used technology and other real shocks to explain fluctuations in output.<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2005), 295.</ref>
 
== Theory ==
The rationale behind Lucas's supply theory centers on how suppliers get information. Lucas claimed that suppliers had to respond to a "signal extraction" problem when making decisions based on prices; the firms had to determine what portion of price changes in their respective industries reflected a general change in nominal prices (inflation) and what portion reflected a change in real prices for inputs and outputs.<ref>Snowdon and Vane, 233-234.</ref> Lucas hypothesized that suppliers know their own industries better than the general economy.  Given this imbalance in information, a supplier could perceive a general increase in prices due to inflation as an increase the [[relative price]] for its output, reflecting a better, real price for its output and encouraging more production. The surprise leads to an increase in production and employment throughout the economy.<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2005), 233-234.</ref>
 
The function can be represented simply as:
 
:<math>Y_s = f(P-P_{expected})</math>
 
The simple version models aggregate output as a function of the price surprise. A more complicated expression of the Lucas supply curve adds expectations to the model. Aggregate supply is a function of the natural level of output(<math>Y_{N_t}</math>) and the difference between actual prices (<math>P_t</math>) and the expected price level given past information <math>\Omega_{t-1}</math> times a coefficient based on an economy's sensitivity to price surprises (<math>\alpha</math>):<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2005), 234.</ref>
:<math>Y_s = Y_{N_t} + \alpha [  P_t  - E\left(P_t |  \Omega_{t-1} \right) ]  </math>
 
By invoking [[Okun's law]] to express the function in terms of unemployment, Lucas's supply function can be viewed as an expression of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve.<ref>Snowdon and Vane (2005), 235.</ref>
 
== See also ==
* [[Lucas islands model]]
 
==References==
* {{cite book | last = Snowdon | first = Brian | coauthors= Howard R. Vane | title = An Encyclopedia of Macroeconomics | publisher = E. Elgar| location = Aldershot | year = 2002 | isbn = 978-1-84542-180-9 }}
*  {{cite book | last = Snowdon | first = Brian | coauthors = Howard R. Vane | title = Modern Macroeconomics | publisher = E. Elgar | location = Cheltenham | year = 2005 | isbn = 978-1-84542-208-0 }}
 
==Citations==
{{reflist}}
 
[[Category:New classical macroeconomics]]

Latest revision as of 02:16, 29 August 2014

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Screwdrivers- There are 4 screwdrivers on the Swisschamp Swiss military knife. They consist of each a flathead and a Phillips head. The flathead is highlighted in each a massive and mini dimensions, even though the Phillips head is featured as massive and fine. Also incorporated are saws, pens, toothpicks, chisel, and tweezers. Many of these equipment are multi function. The Swiss military knife has over a thousand distinct uses with its variety of tools and has been carried on many expeditions. It has been credited with saving lives of not only Swiss military users, but also researchers and biologists.