# Difference between revisions of "Probability theory"

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{{Probability fundamentals}} | {{Probability fundamentals}} | ||

− | '''Probability theory''' is the branch of [[mathematics]] concerned with [[probability]], the analysis of [[Statistical randomness|random]] phenomena.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.britannica.com/ebc/article-9375936 |title=Probability theory, Encyclopaedia Britannica |publisher=Britannica.com | + | '''Probability theory''' is the branch of [[mathematics]] concerned with [[probability]], the analysis of [[Statistical randomness|random]] phenomena.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.britannica.com/ebc/article-9375936 |title=Probability theory, Encyclopaedia Britannica |publisher=Britannica.com |accessdate=2012-02-12}}</ref> The central objects of probability theory are [[random variable]]s, [[stochastic process]]es, and [[event (probability theory)|events]]: mathematical abstractions of [[determinism|non-deterministic]] events or measured [[quantities]] that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. If an individual [[Coin flipping|coin toss]] or the roll of [[dice]] is considered to be a random event, then if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the [[law of large numbers]] and the [[central limit theorem]]. |

As a mathematical foundation for [[statistics]], probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in [[statistical mechanics]]. A great discovery of twentieth century [[physics]] was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in [[quantum mechanics]]. | As a mathematical foundation for [[statistics]], probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in [[statistical mechanics]]. A great discovery of twentieth century [[physics]] was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in [[quantum mechanics]]. | ||

==History== | ==History== | ||

− | The mathematical theory of [[probability]] has its roots in attempts to analyze [[game of chance|games of chance]] by [[Gerolamo Cardano]] in the sixteenth century, and by [[Pierre de Fermat]] and [[Blaise Pascal]] in the seventeenth century (for example the "[[problem of points]]"). [[Christiaan Huygens]] published a book on the subject in 1657<ref>{{cite book|last=Grinstead|first=Charles Miller | | + | The mathematical theory of [[probability]] has its roots in attempts to analyze [[game of chance|games of chance]] by [[Gerolamo Cardano]] in the sixteenth century, and by [[Pierre de Fermat]] and [[Blaise Pascal]] in the seventeenth century (for example the "[[problem of points]]"). [[Christiaan Huygens]] published a book on the subject in 1657<ref>{{cite book|last=Grinstead|first=Charles Miller |author2=James Laurie Snell|title=Introduction to Probability|pages=vii|chapter=Introduction}}</ref> and in the 19th century a big work was done by [[Laplace]] in what can be considered today as the classic interpretation.<ref>{{cite web|last=Hájek|first=Alan|title=Interpretations of Probability|booktitle=The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy|url=http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2012/entries/probability-interpret/|accessdate=2012-06-20}}</ref> |

Initially, probability theory mainly considered '''discrete''' events, and its methods were mainly [[combinatorics|combinatorial]]. Eventually, [[mathematical analysis|analytical]] considerations compelled the incorporation of '''continuous''' variables into the theory. | Initially, probability theory mainly considered '''discrete''' events, and its methods were mainly [[combinatorics|combinatorial]]. Eventually, [[mathematical analysis|analytical]] considerations compelled the incorporation of '''continuous''' variables into the theory. | ||

− | This culminated in modern probability theory, on foundations laid by [[Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov]]. Kolmogorov combined the notion of [[sample space]], introduced by [[Richard von Mises]], and '''[[measure theory]]''' and presented his [[Kolmogorov axioms|axiom system]] for probability theory in 1933. Fairly quickly this became the mostly undisputed [[axiom system|axiomatic basis]] for modern probability theory but alternatives exist, in particular the adoption of finite rather than countable additivity by [[Bruno de Finetti]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.probabilityandfinance.com/articles/04.pdf |title="The origins and legacy of Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe", by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk |format=PDF | + | This culminated in modern probability theory, on foundations laid by [[Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov]]. Kolmogorov combined the notion of [[sample space]], introduced by [[Richard von Mises]], and '''[[measure theory]]''' and presented his [[Kolmogorov axioms|axiom system]] for probability theory in 1933. Fairly quickly this became the mostly undisputed [[axiom system|axiomatic basis]] for modern probability theory but alternatives exist, in particular the adoption of finite rather than countable additivity by [[Bruno de Finetti]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.probabilityandfinance.com/articles/04.pdf |title="The origins and legacy of Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe", by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk |format=PDF |accessdate=2012-02-12}}</ref> |

==Treatment== | ==Treatment== | ||

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===Motivation=== | ===Motivation=== | ||

− | Consider an experiment that can produce a number of outcomes. The set of all outcomes is called the ''sample space'' of the experiment. The ''[[power set]]'' of the sample space is formed by considering all different collections of possible results. For example, rolling an honest die produces one of six possible results. One collection of possible results corresponds to getting an odd number. Thus, the subset {1,3,5} is an element of the power set of the sample space of die rolls. These collections are called ''events''. In this case, {1,3,5} is the event that the die falls on some odd number. If the results that actually occur fall in a given event, that event is said to have occurred. | + | Consider an experiment that can produce a number of outcomes. The set of all outcomes is called the ''[[sample space]]'' of the experiment. The ''[[power set]]'' of the sample space is formed by considering all different collections of possible results. For example, rolling an honest die produces one of six possible results. One collection of possible results corresponds to getting an odd number. Thus, the subset {1,3,5} is an element of the power set of the sample space of die rolls. These collections are called ''events''. In this case, {1,3,5} is the event that the die falls on some odd number. If the results that actually occur fall in a given event, that event is said to have occurred. |

− | Probability is a [[Function (mathematics)|way of assigning]] every "event" a value between zero and one, with the requirement that the event made up of all possible results (in our example, the event {1,2,3,4,5,6}) be assigned a value of one. To qualify as a [[probability distribution]], the assignment of values must satisfy the requirement that if you look at a collection of mutually exclusive events (events that contain no common results, e.g., the events {1,6}, {3}, and {2,4} are all mutually exclusive), the probability that one of the events will occur is given by the sum of the probabilities of the individual events.<ref>Ross, Sheldon. A First course in Probability, 8th Edition. Page | + | Probability is a [[Function (mathematics)|way of assigning]] every "event" a value between zero and one, with the requirement that the event made up of all possible results (in our example, the event {1,2,3,4,5,6}) be assigned a value of one. To qualify as a [[probability distribution]], the assignment of values must satisfy the requirement that if you look at a collection of mutually exclusive events (events that contain no common results, e.g., the events {1,6}, {3}, and {2,4} are all mutually exclusive), the probability that one of the events will occur is given by the sum of the probabilities of the individual events.<ref>Ross, Sheldon. ''A First course in Probability'', 8th Edition. Page 26–27.</ref> |

− | The probability that any one of the events {1,6}, {3}, or {2,4} will occur is 5/6. | + | The probability that any one of the events {1,6}, {3}, or {2,4} will occur is 5/6. This is the same as saying that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any number except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event {1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty. |

===Discrete probability distributions=== | ===Discrete probability distributions=== | ||

{{Main|Discrete probability distribution}} | {{Main|Discrete probability distribution}} | ||

+ | |||

+ | [[File:NYW-DK-Poisson(5).png|thumb|300px|The [[Poisson distribution]], a discrete probability distribution.]] | ||

+ | |||

'''Discrete probability theory''' deals with events that occur in [[countable]] sample spaces. | '''Discrete probability theory''' deals with events that occur in [[countable]] sample spaces. | ||

− | Examples: Throwing [[dice]], experiments with [[deck of cards|decks of cards]],[[random walk]],and tossing [[coin]]s | + | Examples: Throwing [[dice]], experiments with [[deck of cards|decks of cards]], [[random walk]], and tossing [[coin]]s |

'''Classical definition:''' | '''Classical definition:''' | ||

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'''Modern definition:''' | '''Modern definition:''' | ||

The modern definition starts with a [[Countable set|finite or countable set]] called the '''[[sample space]]''', which relates to the set of all ''possible outcomes'' in classical sense, denoted by <math>\Omega</math>. It is then assumed that for each element <math>x \in \Omega\,</math>, an intrinsic "probability" value <math>f(x)\,</math> is attached, which satisfies the following properties: | The modern definition starts with a [[Countable set|finite or countable set]] called the '''[[sample space]]''', which relates to the set of all ''possible outcomes'' in classical sense, denoted by <math>\Omega</math>. It is then assumed that for each element <math>x \in \Omega\,</math>, an intrinsic "probability" value <math>f(x)\,</math> is attached, which satisfies the following properties: | ||

− | #<math>f(x)\in[0,1]\mbox{ for all }x\in \Omega\,;</math> | + | # <math>f(x)\in[0,1]\mbox{ for all }x\in \Omega\,;</math> |

− | #<math>\sum_{x\in \Omega} f(x) = 1\,.</math> | + | # <math>\sum_{x\in \Omega} f(x) = 1\,.</math> |

That is, the probability function ''f''(''x'') lies between zero and one for every value of ''x'' in the sample space ''Ω'', and the sum of ''f''(''x'') over all values ''x'' in the sample space ''Ω'' is equal to 1. An '''[[Event (probability theory)|event]]''' is defined as any [[subset]] <math>E\,</math> of the sample space <math>\Omega\,</math>. The '''probability''' of the event <math>E\,</math> is defined as | That is, the probability function ''f''(''x'') lies between zero and one for every value of ''x'' in the sample space ''Ω'', and the sum of ''f''(''x'') over all values ''x'' in the sample space ''Ω'' is equal to 1. An '''[[Event (probability theory)|event]]''' is defined as any [[subset]] <math>E\,</math> of the sample space <math>\Omega\,</math>. The '''probability''' of the event <math>E\,</math> is defined as | ||

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So, the probability of the entire sample space is 1, and the probability of the null event is 0. | So, the probability of the entire sample space is 1, and the probability of the null event is 0. | ||

− | The function <math>f(x)\,</math> mapping a point in the sample space to the "probability" value is called a '''[[probability mass function]]''' abbreviated as '''pmf'''. | + | The function <math>f(x)\,</math> mapping a point in the sample space to the "probability" value is called a '''[[probability mass function]]''' abbreviated as '''pmf'''. The modern definition does not try to answer how probability mass functions are obtained; instead it builds a theory that assumes their existence. |

===Continuous probability distributions=== | ===Continuous probability distributions=== | ||

{{Main|Continuous probability distribution}} | {{Main|Continuous probability distribution}} | ||

+ | |||

+ | [[File:Gaussian distribution 2.jpg|thumb|300px|The [[normal distribution]], a continuous probability distribution.]] | ||

+ | |||

'''Continuous probability theory''' deals with events that occur in a continuous sample space. | '''Continuous probability theory''' deals with events that occur in a continuous sample space. | ||

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'''Modern definition:''' | '''Modern definition:''' | ||

− | If the outcome space of a random variable ''X'' is the set of [[real numbers]] (<math>\mathbb{R}</math>) or a subset thereof, then a function called the '''[[cumulative distribution function]]''' (or '''cdf''') <math>F\,</math> exists, defined by <math>F(x) = P(X\le x) | + | If the outcome space of a random variable ''X'' is the set of [[real numbers]] (<math>\mathbb{R}</math>) or a subset thereof, then a function called the '''[[cumulative distribution function]]''' (or '''cdf''') <math>F\,</math> exists, defined by <math>F(x) = P(X\le x) \,</math>. That is, ''F''(''x'') returns the probability that ''X'' will be less than or equal to ''x''. |

The cdf necessarily satisfies the following properties. | The cdf necessarily satisfies the following properties. | ||

− | #<math>F\,</math> is a [[Monotonic function|monotonically non-decreasing]], [[right-continuous]] function; | + | # <math>F\,</math> is a [[Monotonic function|monotonically non-decreasing]], [[right-continuous]] function; |

− | #<math>\lim_{x\rightarrow -\infty} F(x)=0\,;</math> | + | # <math>\lim_{x\rightarrow -\infty} F(x)=0\,;</math> |

− | #<math>\lim_{x\rightarrow \infty} F(x)=1\,.</math> | + | # <math>\lim_{x\rightarrow \infty} F(x)=1\,.</math> |

If <math>F\,</math> is [[absolutely continuous]], i.e., its derivative exists and integrating the derivative gives us the cdf back again, then the random variable ''X'' is said to have a '''[[probability density function]]''' or '''pdf''' or simply '''density''' <math>f(x)=\frac{dF(x)}{dx}\,.</math> | If <math>F\,</math> is [[absolutely continuous]], i.e., its derivative exists and integrating the derivative gives us the cdf back again, then the random variable ''X'' is said to have a '''[[probability density function]]''' or '''pdf''' or simply '''density''' <math>f(x)=\frac{dF(x)}{dx}\,.</math> | ||

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Given any set <math>\Omega\,</math>, (also called '''sample space''') and a [[sigma-algebra|σ-algebra]] <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> on it, a [[measure (mathematics)|measure]] <math>P\,</math> defined on <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> is called a '''probability measure''' if <math>P(\Omega)=1.\,</math> | Given any set <math>\Omega\,</math>, (also called '''sample space''') and a [[sigma-algebra|σ-algebra]] <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> on it, a [[measure (mathematics)|measure]] <math>P\,</math> defined on <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> is called a '''probability measure''' if <math>P(\Omega)=1.\,</math> | ||

− | If <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> | + | If <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> is the [[Borel algebra|Borel σ-algebra]] on the set of real numbers, then there is a unique probability measure on <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> for any cdf, and vice versa. The measure corresponding to a cdf is said to be '''induced''' by the cdf. This measure coincides with the pmf for discrete variables and pdf for continuous variables, making the measure-theoretic approach free of fallacies. |

The ''probability'' of a set <math>E\,</math> in the σ-algebra <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> is defined as | The ''probability'' of a set <math>E\,</math> in the σ-algebra <math>\mathcal{F}\,</math> is defined as | ||

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Along with providing better understanding and unification of discrete and continuous probabilities, measure-theoretic treatment also allows us to work on probabilities outside <math>\mathbb{R}^n</math>, as in the theory of [[stochastic process]]es. For example to study [[Brownian motion]], probability is defined on a space of functions. | Along with providing better understanding and unification of discrete and continuous probabilities, measure-theoretic treatment also allows us to work on probabilities outside <math>\mathbb{R}^n</math>, as in the theory of [[stochastic process]]es. For example to study [[Brownian motion]], probability is defined on a space of functions. | ||

− | == | + | ==Classical probability distributions== |

{{Main|Probability distributions}} | {{Main|Probability distributions}} | ||

− | Certain random variables occur very often in probability theory because they well describe many natural or physical processes. Their distributions therefore have gained ''special importance'' in probability theory. | + | |

+ | Certain random variables occur very often in probability theory because they well describe many natural or physical processes. Their distributions therefore have gained ''special importance'' in probability theory. Some fundamental ''discrete distributions'' are the [[uniform distribution (discrete)|discrete uniform]], [[Bernoulli distribution|Bernoulli]], [[binomial distribution|binomial]], [[negative binomial distribution|negative binomial]], [[Poisson distribution|Poisson]] and [[geometric distribution]]s. Important ''continuous distributions'' include the [[uniform distribution (continuous)|continuous uniform]], [[normal distribution|normal]], [[exponential distribution|exponential]], [[gamma distribution|gamma]] and [[beta distribution]]s. | ||

==Convergence of random variables== | ==Convergence of random variables== | ||

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::''Most common shorthand notation:'' <math>X_n \, \xrightarrow{\mathcal D} \, X\,.</math> | ::''Most common shorthand notation:'' <math>X_n \, \xrightarrow{\mathcal D} \, X\,.</math> | ||

− | :'''Convergence in probability:''' The sequence of random variables <math>X_1,X_2,\dots\,</math> is said to converge towards the random variable <math>X\,</math> '''in probability''' if <math>\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}P\left(\left|X_n-X\right|\geq\varepsilon\right)=0</math> for every | + | :'''Convergence in probability:''' The sequence of random variables <math>X_1,X_2,\dots\,</math> is said to converge towards the random variable <math>X\,</math> '''in probability''' if <math>\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}P\left(\left|X_n-X\right|\geq\varepsilon\right)=0</math> for every ε > 0. |

::''Most common shorthand notation:'' <math>X_n \, \xrightarrow{P} \, X\,.</math> | ::''Most common shorthand notation:'' <math>X_n \, \xrightarrow{P} \, X\,.</math> | ||

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As the names indicate, weak convergence is weaker than strong convergence. In fact, strong convergence implies convergence in probability, and convergence in probability implies weak convergence. The reverse statements are not always true. | As the names indicate, weak convergence is weaker than strong convergence. In fact, strong convergence implies convergence in probability, and convergence in probability implies weak convergence. The reverse statements are not always true. | ||

− | ==Law of large numbers== | + | ===Law of large numbers=== |

{{Main|Law of large numbers}} | {{Main|Law of large numbers}} | ||

− | Common intuition suggests that if a fair coin is tossed many times, then ''roughly'' half of the time it will turn up ''heads'', and the other half it will turn up ''tails''. Furthermore, the more often the coin is tossed, the more likely it should be that the ratio of the number of ''heads'' to the number of ''tails'' will approach unity. Modern probability provides a formal version of this intuitive idea, known as the '''law of large numbers'''. | + | Common intuition suggests that if a fair coin is tossed many times, then ''roughly'' half of the time it will turn up ''heads'', and the other half it will turn up ''tails''. Furthermore, the more often the coin is tossed, the more likely it should be that the ratio of the number of ''heads'' to the number of ''tails'' will approach unity. Modern probability provides a formal version of this intuitive idea, known as the '''law of large numbers'''. This law is remarkable because it is not assumed in the foundations of probability theory, but instead emerges from these foundations as a theorem. Since it links theoretically derived probabilities to their actual frequency of occurrence in the real world, the law of large numbers is considered as a pillar in the history of statistical theory and has had widespread influence.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.leithner.com.au/circulars/circular17.htm |title=Leithner & Co Pty Ltd - Value Investing, Risk and Risk Management - Part I |publisher=Leithner.com.au |date=2000-09-15 |accessdate=2012-02-12}}</ref> |

<!-- Note to editors: Please provide better citation for the historical importance of LLN if you have it --> | <!-- Note to editors: Please provide better citation for the historical importance of LLN if you have it --> | ||

− | The '''law of large numbers''' (LLN) states that the sample average | + | The '''law of large numbers''' (LLN) states that the sample average |

:<math>\overline{X}_n=\frac1n{\sum_{k=1}^n X_k}</math> | :<math>\overline{X}_n=\frac1n{\sum_{k=1}^n X_k}</math> | ||

− | of a sequence of independent and | + | of a sequence of independent and |

identically distributed random variables <math>X_k</math> converges towards their common expectation <math>\mu</math>, provided that the expectation of <math>|X_k|</math> is finite. | identically distributed random variables <math>X_k</math> converges towards their common expectation <math>\mu</math>, provided that the expectation of <math>|X_k|</math> is finite. | ||

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:<math> | :<math> | ||

\begin{array}{lll} | \begin{array}{lll} | ||

− | \text{Weak law:} | + | \text{Weak law:} & \overline{X}_n \, \xrightarrow{P} \, \mu & \text{for } n \to \infty \\ |

\text{Strong law:} & \overline{X}_n \, \xrightarrow{\mathrm{a.\,s.}} \, \mu & \text{for } n \to \infty . | \text{Strong law:} & \overline{X}_n \, \xrightarrow{\mathrm{a.\,s.}} \, \mu & \text{for } n \to \infty . | ||

\end{array} | \end{array} | ||

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For example, if <math>Y_1,Y_2,...\,</math> are independent [[Bernoulli distribution|Bernoulli random variables]] taking values 1 with probability ''p'' and 0 with probability 1-''p'', then <math>\textrm{E}(Y_i)=p</math> for all ''i'', so that <math>\bar Y_n</math> converges to ''p'' [[almost surely]]. | For example, if <math>Y_1,Y_2,...\,</math> are independent [[Bernoulli distribution|Bernoulli random variables]] taking values 1 with probability ''p'' and 0 with probability 1-''p'', then <math>\textrm{E}(Y_i)=p</math> for all ''i'', so that <math>\bar Y_n</math> converges to ''p'' [[almost surely]]. | ||

− | ==Central limit theorem== | + | ===Central limit theorem=== |

{{Main|Central limit theorem}} | {{Main|Central limit theorem}} | ||

− | "The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the great results of mathematics." (Chapter 18 in <ref>[[David Williams (mathematician)|David Williams]], "Probability with martingales", Cambridge 1991/2008</ref>) | + | "The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the great results of mathematics." (Chapter 18 in<ref>[[David Williams (mathematician)|David Williams]], "Probability with martingales", Cambridge 1991/2008</ref>) |

It explains the ubiquitous occurrence of the [[normal distribution]] in nature. | It explains the ubiquitous occurrence of the [[normal distribution]] in nature. | ||

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:<math>Z_n=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n (X_i - \mu)}{\sigma\sqrt{n}}\,</math> | :<math>Z_n=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n (X_i - \mu)}{\sigma\sqrt{n}}\,</math> | ||

converges in distribution to a [[standard normal]] random variable. | converges in distribution to a [[standard normal]] random variable. | ||

+ | |||

+ | Notice that for some classes of random variables the classic central limit theorem works rather fast (see [[Berry–Esseen theorem]]), for example the distributions with finite first, second and third moment from the [[exponential family]], on the other hand for some random variables of the [[heavy tail]] and [[fat tail]] variety, it works very slow or may not work at all: in such cases one may use the [[Stable distribution#A generalized central limit theorem|Generalized Central Limit Theorem]] (GCLT). | ||

==See also== | ==See also== | ||

{{multicol}} | {{multicol}} | ||

− | *[[Expected value]] and [[Variance]] | + | * [[Expected value]] and [[Variance]] |

− | *[[Fuzzy logic]] and [[Fuzzy measure theory]] | + | * [[Fuzzy logic]] and [[Fuzzy measure theory]] |

− | *[[Glossary of probability and statistics]] | + | * [[Glossary of probability and statistics]] |

− | *[[Likelihood function]] | + | * [[Likelihood function]] |

− | *[[List of probability topics]] | + | * [[List of probability topics]] |

− | *[[Catalog of articles in probability theory]] | + | * [[Catalog of articles in probability theory]] |

− | *[[List of publications in statistics]] | + | * [[List of publications in statistics]] |

− | *[[List of statistical topics]] | + | * [[List of statistical topics]] |

− | *[[Probabilistic proofs of non-probabilistic theorems]] | + | * [[Probabilistic proofs of non-probabilistic theorems]] |

{{multicol-break}} | {{multicol-break}} | ||

− | *[[Notation in probability]] | + | * [[Notation in probability]] |

− | *[[Predictive modelling]] | + | * [[Predictive modelling]] |

− | *[[Probabilistic logic]] – A combination of probability theory and logic | + | * [[Probabilistic logic]] – A combination of probability theory and logic |

− | *[[Probability axioms]] | + | * [[Probability axioms]] |

− | *[[Probability interpretations]] | + | * [[Probability interpretations]] |

− | *[[Statistical independence]] | + | * [[Statistical independence]] |

− | *[[Subjective logic]] | + | * [[Subjective logic]] |

{{multicol-end}} | {{multicol-end}} | ||

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==References== | ==References== | ||

{{More footnotes|date=September 2009}} | {{More footnotes|date=September 2009}} | ||

− | *{{cite book | + | * {{cite book |

| authorlink = Pierre Simon de Laplace | | authorlink = Pierre Simon de Laplace | ||

| author = Pierre Simon de Laplace | | author = Pierre Simon de Laplace | ||

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| title = Analytical Theory of Probability}} | | title = Analytical Theory of Probability}} | ||

:: The first major treatise blending calculus with probability theory, originally in French: ''Théorie Analytique des Probabilités''. | :: The first major treatise blending calculus with probability theory, originally in French: ''Théorie Analytique des Probabilités''. | ||

− | *{{cite book | + | * {{cite book |

− | | author = | + | | author = [[Andrey Kolmogorov|A. Kolmogoroff]] |

− | | | + | | title = ''Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung'' |

− | | | + | | year = 1933}} |

− | :: | + | :: An English translation by Nathan Morrison appeared under the title ''Foundations of the Theory of Probability'' (Chelsea, New York) in 1950, with a second edition in 1956. |

− | *{{cite book | + | * {{cite book |

| author = [[Patrick Billingsley]] | | author = [[Patrick Billingsley]] | ||

| title = Probability and Measure | | title = Probability and Measure | ||

Line 189: | Line 198: | ||

| year = 1979}} | | year = 1979}} | ||

* [[Olav Kallenberg]]; ''Foundations of Modern Probability,'' 2nd ed. Springer Series in Statistics. (2002). 650 pp. ISBN 0-387-95313-2 | * [[Olav Kallenberg]]; ''Foundations of Modern Probability,'' 2nd ed. Springer Series in Statistics. (2002). 650 pp. ISBN 0-387-95313-2 | ||

− | *{{cite book | + | * {{cite book |

| author = [[Henk Tijms]] | | author = [[Henk Tijms]] | ||

| year = 2004 | | year = 2004 | ||

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:: A lively introduction to probability theory for the beginner. | :: A lively introduction to probability theory for the beginner. | ||

* Olav Kallenberg; ''Probabilistic Symmetries and Invariance Principles''. Springer -Verlag, New York (2005). 510 pp. ISBN 0-387-25115-4 | * Olav Kallenberg; ''Probabilistic Symmetries and Invariance Principles''. Springer -Verlag, New York (2005). 510 pp. ISBN 0-387-25115-4 | ||

− | *{{cite book | + | * {{cite book |

− | | last | + | | last = Gut |

− | | first | + | | first = Allan |

− | | title | + | | title = Probability: A Graduate Course |

− | | publisher | + | | publisher = Springer-Verlag |

− | | year | + | | year = 2005 |

− | | isbn | + | | isbn = 0-387-22833-0 |

}} | }} | ||

− | ==External links== | + | == External links == |

− | * | + | * {{YouTube|9eaOxgT5ys0|Animation}} on the probability space of dice. |

− | {{ | + | {{Areas of mathematics}} |

+ | {{Industrial and applied mathematics}} | ||

{{DEFAULTSORT:Probability Theory}} | {{DEFAULTSORT:Probability Theory}} | ||

[[Category:Probability theory| ]] | [[Category:Probability theory| ]] | ||

− | |||

− | |||

[[id:Peluang (matematika)]] | [[id:Peluang (matematika)]] |

## Latest revision as of 15:15, 1 December 2014

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**Probability theory** is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability, the analysis of random phenomena.^{[1]} The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. If an individual coin toss or the roll of dice is considered to be a random event, then if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.

## History

The mathematical theory of probability has its roots in attempts to analyze games of chance by Gerolamo Cardano in the sixteenth century, and by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the seventeenth century (for example the "problem of points"). Christiaan Huygens published a book on the subject in 1657^{[2]} and in the 19th century a big work was done by Laplace in what can be considered today as the classic interpretation.^{[3]}

Initially, probability theory mainly considered **discrete** events, and its methods were mainly combinatorial. Eventually, analytical considerations compelled the incorporation of **continuous** variables into the theory.

This culminated in modern probability theory, on foundations laid by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. Kolmogorov combined the notion of sample space, introduced by Richard von Mises, and **measure theory** and presented his axiom system for probability theory in 1933. Fairly quickly this became the mostly undisputed axiomatic basis for modern probability theory but alternatives exist, in particular the adoption of finite rather than countable additivity by Bruno de Finetti.^{[4]}

## Treatment

Most introductions to probability theory treat discrete probability distributions and continuous probability distributions separately. The more mathematically advanced measure theory based treatment of probability covers both the discrete, the continuous, any mix of these two and more.

### Motivation

Consider an experiment that can produce a number of outcomes. The set of all outcomes is called the *sample space* of the experiment. The *power set* of the sample space is formed by considering all different collections of possible results. For example, rolling an honest die produces one of six possible results. One collection of possible results corresponds to getting an odd number. Thus, the subset {1,3,5} is an element of the power set of the sample space of die rolls. These collections are called *events*. In this case, {1,3,5} is the event that the die falls on some odd number. If the results that actually occur fall in a given event, that event is said to have occurred.

Probability is a way of assigning every "event" a value between zero and one, with the requirement that the event made up of all possible results (in our example, the event {1,2,3,4,5,6}) be assigned a value of one. To qualify as a probability distribution, the assignment of values must satisfy the requirement that if you look at a collection of mutually exclusive events (events that contain no common results, e.g., the events {1,6}, {3}, and {2,4} are all mutually exclusive), the probability that one of the events will occur is given by the sum of the probabilities of the individual events.^{[5]}

The probability that any one of the events {1,6}, {3}, or {2,4} will occur is 5/6. This is the same as saying that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any number except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event {1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty.

### Discrete probability distributions

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**Discrete probability theory** deals with events that occur in countable sample spaces.

Examples: Throwing dice, experiments with decks of cards, random walk, and tossing coins

**Classical definition:**
Initially the probability of an event to occur was defined as number of cases favorable for the event, over the number of total outcomes possible in an equiprobable sample space: see Classical definition of probability.

For example, if the event is "occurrence of an even number when a die is rolled", the probability is given by , since 3 faces out of the 6 have even numbers and each face has the same probability of appearing.

**Modern definition:**
The modern definition starts with a finite or countable set called the **sample space**, which relates to the set of all *possible outcomes* in classical sense, denoted by . It is then assumed that for each element , an intrinsic "probability" value is attached, which satisfies the following properties:

That is, the probability function *f*(*x*) lies between zero and one for every value of *x* in the sample space *Ω*, and the sum of *f*(*x*) over all values *x* in the sample space *Ω* is equal to 1. An **event** is defined as any subset of the sample space . The **probability** of the event is defined as

So, the probability of the entire sample space is 1, and the probability of the null event is 0.

The function mapping a point in the sample space to the "probability" value is called a **probability mass function** abbreviated as **pmf**. The modern definition does not try to answer how probability mass functions are obtained; instead it builds a theory that assumes their existence.

### Continuous probability distributions

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**Continuous probability theory** deals with events that occur in a continuous sample space.

**Classical definition:**
The classical definition breaks down when confronted with the continuous case. See Bertrand's paradox.

**Modern definition:**
If the outcome space of a random variable *X* is the set of real numbers () or a subset thereof, then a function called the **cumulative distribution function** (or **cdf**) exists, defined by . That is, *F*(*x*) returns the probability that *X* will be less than or equal to *x*.

The cdf necessarily satisfies the following properties.

- is a monotonically non-decreasing, right-continuous function;

If is absolutely continuous, i.e., its derivative exists and integrating the derivative gives us the cdf back again, then the random variable *X* is said to have a **probability density function** or **pdf** or simply **density**

For a set , the probability of the random variable *X* being in is

In case the probability density function exists, this can be written as

Whereas the *pdf* exists only for continuous random variables, the *cdf* exists for all random variables (including discrete random variables) that take values in

These concepts can be generalized for multidimensional cases on and other continuous sample spaces.

### Measure-theoretic probability theory

The *raison d'être* of the measure-theoretic treatment of probability is that it unifies the discrete and the continuous cases, and makes the difference a question of which measure is used. Furthermore, it covers distributions that are neither discrete nor continuous nor mixtures of the two.

An example of such distributions could be a mix of discrete and continuous distributions—for example, a random variable that is 0 with probability 1/2, and takes a random value from a normal distribution with probability 1/2. It can still be studied to some extent by considering it to have a pdf of , where is the Dirac delta function.

Other distributions may not even be a mix, for example, the Cantor distribution has no positive probability for any single point, neither does it have a density. The modern approach to probability theory solves these problems using measure theory to define the probability space:

Given any set , (also called **sample space**) and a σ-algebra on it, a measure defined on is called a **probability measure** if

If is the Borel σ-algebra on the set of real numbers, then there is a unique probability measure on for any cdf, and vice versa. The measure corresponding to a cdf is said to be **induced** by the cdf. This measure coincides with the pmf for discrete variables and pdf for continuous variables, making the measure-theoretic approach free of fallacies.

The *probability* of a set in the σ-algebra is defined as

where the integration is with respect to the measure induced by

Along with providing better understanding and unification of discrete and continuous probabilities, measure-theoretic treatment also allows us to work on probabilities outside , as in the theory of stochastic processes. For example to study Brownian motion, probability is defined on a space of functions.

## Classical probability distributions

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Certain random variables occur very often in probability theory because they well describe many natural or physical processes. Their distributions therefore have gained *special importance* in probability theory. Some fundamental *discrete distributions* are the discrete uniform, Bernoulli, binomial, negative binomial, Poisson and geometric distributions. Important *continuous distributions* include the continuous uniform, normal, exponential, gamma and beta distributions.

## Convergence of random variables

{{#invoke:main|main}} In probability theory, there are several notions of convergence for random variables. They are listed below in the order of strength, i.e., any subsequent notion of convergence in the list implies convergence according to all of the preceding notions.

**Weak convergence:**A sequence of random variables converges**weakly**to the random variable if their respective cumulative*distribution functions*converge to the cumulative distribution function of , wherever is continuous. Weak convergence is also called**convergence in distribution**.

**Convergence in probability:**The sequence of random variables is said to converge towards the random variable**in probability**if for every ε > 0.

**Strong convergence:**The sequence of random variables is said to converge towards the random variable**strongly**if . Strong convergence is also known as**almost sure convergence**.

As the names indicate, weak convergence is weaker than strong convergence. In fact, strong convergence implies convergence in probability, and convergence in probability implies weak convergence. The reverse statements are not always true.

### Law of large numbers

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Common intuition suggests that if a fair coin is tossed many times, then *roughly* half of the time it will turn up *heads*, and the other half it will turn up *tails*. Furthermore, the more often the coin is tossed, the more likely it should be that the ratio of the number of *heads* to the number of *tails* will approach unity. Modern probability provides a formal version of this intuitive idea, known as the **law of large numbers**. This law is remarkable because it is not assumed in the foundations of probability theory, but instead emerges from these foundations as a theorem. Since it links theoretically derived probabilities to their actual frequency of occurrence in the real world, the law of large numbers is considered as a pillar in the history of statistical theory and has had widespread influence.^{[6]}

The **law of large numbers** (LLN) states that the sample average

of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables converges towards their common expectation , provided that the expectation of is finite.

It is in the different forms of convergence of random variables that separates the *weak* and the *strong* law of large numbers

It follows from the LLN that if an event of probability *p* is observed repeatedly during independent experiments, the ratio of the observed frequency of that event to the total number of repetitions converges towards *p*.

For example, if are independent Bernoulli random variables taking values 1 with probability *p* and 0 with probability 1-*p*, then for all *i*, so that converges to *p* almost surely.

### Central limit theorem

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"The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the great results of mathematics." (Chapter 18 in^{[7]})
It explains the ubiquitous occurrence of the normal distribution in nature.

The theorem states that the average of many independent and identically distributed random variables with finite variance tends towards a normal distribution *irrespective* of the distribution followed by the original random variables. Formally, let be independent random variables with mean and variance Then the sequence of random variables

converges in distribution to a standard normal random variable.

Notice that for some classes of random variables the classic central limit theorem works rather fast (see Berry–Esseen theorem), for example the distributions with finite first, second and third moment from the exponential family, on the other hand for some random variables of the heavy tail and fat tail variety, it works very slow or may not work at all: in such cases one may use the Generalized Central Limit Theorem (GCLT).

## See also

## Notes

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- ↑ Ross, Sheldon.
*A First course in Probability*, 8th Edition. Page 26–27. - ↑ Template:Cite web
- ↑ David Williams, "Probability with martingales", Cambridge 1991/2008

## References

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|CitationClass=book }}

- The first major treatise blending calculus with probability theory, originally in French:
*Théorie Analytique des Probabilités*.

- The first major treatise blending calculus with probability theory, originally in French:

- {{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=book }}

- An English translation by Nathan Morrison appeared under the title
*Foundations of the Theory of Probability*(Chelsea, New York) in 1950, with a second edition in 1956.

- An English translation by Nathan Morrison appeared under the title

- {{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=book }}

- Olav Kallenberg;
*Foundations of Modern Probability,*2nd ed. Springer Series in Statistics. (2002). 650 pp. ISBN 0-387-95313-2 - {{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=book }}

- A lively introduction to probability theory for the beginner.

- Olav Kallenberg;
*Probabilistic Symmetries and Invariance Principles*. Springer -Verlag, New York (2005). 510 pp. ISBN 0-387-25115-4 - {{#invoke:citation/CS1|citation

|CitationClass=book }}

## External links

- Template:YouTube on the probability space of dice.

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