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my site; wellness [continue reading this..] Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example, in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.

Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible.

Categories of forecasting methods

Qualitative vs. quantitative methods

Qualitative forecasting techniques are subjective, based on the opinion and judgment of consumers, experts; they are appropriate when past data are not available. They are usually applied to intermediate- or long-range decisions. Examples of qualitative forecasting methods are Template:Cn informed opinion and judgment, the Delphi method, market research, and historical life-cycle analogy.

Quantitative forecasting models are used to forecast future data as a function of past data; they are appropriate when past data are available. These methods are usually applied to short- or intermediate-range decisions. Examples of quantitative forecasting methods areTemplate:Cn last period demand, simple and weighted N-Period moving averages, simple exponential smoothing, and multiplicative seasonal indexes.

Naïve approach

Naïve forecasts are the most cost-effective objective forecasting model, and provide a benchmark against which more sophisticated models can be compared. For stationary time series data, this approach says that the forecast for any period equals the historical average. For time series data that are stationary in terms of first differences, the naïve forecast equals the previous period's actual value.

Time series methods

Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.

• Moving average
• Weighted moving average
• Kalman filtering
• Exponential smoothing
• Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
• Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)

e.g. Box-Jenkins

• Extrapolation
• Linear prediction
• Trend estimation
• Growth curve

Causal / econometric forecasting methods

Some forecasting methods try to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. For example, including information about climate patterns might improve the ability of a model to predict umbrella sales. Forecasting models often take account of regular seasonal variations. In addition to climate, such variations can also be due to holidays and customs: for example, one might predict that sales of college football apparel will be higher during the football season than during the off season.

Several informal methods used in causal forecasting do not employ strict algorithms Template:Clarifyme, but instead use the judgment of the forecaster. Some forecasts take account of past relationships between variables: if one variable has, for example, been approximately linearly related to another for a long period of time, it may be appropriate to extrapolate such a relationship into the future, without necessarily understanding the reasons for the relationship.

Causal methods include:

• Regression analysis includes a large group of methods for predicting future values of a variable using information about other variables. These methods include both parametric (linear or non-linear) and non-parametric techniques.

• Autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX)

Quantitative forecasting models are often judged against each other by comparing their in-sample or out-of-sample mean square error, although some researchers have advised against this.

Judgmental methods

Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgements, opinions and subjective probability estimates.

• Composite forecasts
• Delphi method
• Forecast by analogy
• Scenario building
• Statistical surveys
• Technology forecasting

Artificial intelligence methods

• Artificial neural networks
• Group method of data handling
• Support vector machines

Often these are done today by specialized programs loosely labeled

• Data mining
• Machine Learning
• Pattern Recognition

Other methods

• Simulation
• Prediction market
• Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting

Forecasting accuracy

The forecast error is the difference between the actual value and the forecast value for the corresponding period.

$\ E_{t}=Y_{t}-F_{t}$

where E is the forecast error at period t, Y is the actual value at period t, and F is the forecast for period t.

Measures of aggregate error:

Mean absolute error (MAE)	$\ MAE={\frac {\sum _{t=1}^{N}|E_{t}|}{N}}$
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)	$\ MAPE={\frac {\sum _{t=1}^{N}|{\frac {E_{t}}{Y_{t}}}|}{N}}$
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)	$\ MAD={\frac {\sum _{t=1}^{N}|E_{t}|}{N}}$
Percent Mean Absolute Deviation (PMAD)	$\ PMAD={\frac {\sum _{t=1}^{N}|E_{t}|}{\sum _{t=1}^{N}|Y_{t}|}}$
Mean squared error (MSE) or Mean squared prediction error (MSPE)	$\ MSE={\frac {\sum _{t=1}^{N}{E_{t}^{2}}}{N}}$
Root Mean squared error (RMSE)	$\ RMSE={\sqrt {\frac {\sum _{t=1}^{N}{E_{t}^{2}}}{N}}}$
Forecast skill (SS)	$\ SS=1-{\frac {MSE_{forecast}}{MSE_{ref}}}$
Average of Errors (E)	$\ {\bar {E}}={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{N}{E_{i}}}{N}}$

Business forecasters and practitioners sometimes use different terminology in the industry. They refer to the PMAD as the MAPE, although they compute this as a volume weighted MAPE.Template:Cn For more information see Calculating demand forecast accuracy.

See also

• Calculating demand forecast accuracy
• Consensus forecasts
• Forecast error
• Predictability
• Prediction intervals, similar to confidence intervals
• Reference class forecasting

Applications of forecasting

Climate change and increasing energy prices have led to the use of Egain Forecasting for buildings. This attempts to reduce the energy needed to heat the building, thus reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Forecasting is used in Customer Demand Planning in everyday business for manufacturing and distribution companies.

Forecasting has also been used to predict the development of conflict situations. Forecasters perform research that uses empirical results to gauge the effectiveness of certain forecasting models. However research has shown that there is little difference between the accuracy of the forecasts of experts knowledgeable in the conflict situation and those by individuals who knew much less.

Similarly, experts in some studies argue that role thinkingTemplate:Clarifyme does not contribute to the accuracy of the forecast. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. An important, albeit often ignored aspect of forecasting, is the relationship it holds with planning. Forecasting can be described as predicting what the future will look like, whereas planning predicts what the future should look like. There is no single right forecasting method to use. Selection of a method should be based on your objectives and your conditions (data etc.). A good place to find a method, is by visiting a selection tree. An example of a selection tree can be found here. Forecasting has application in many situations:

• Supply chain management - Forecasting can be used in supply chain management to ensure that the right product is at the right place at the right time. Accurate forecasting will help retailers reduce excess inventory and thus increase profit margin. Studies have shown that extrapolations are the least accurate, while company earnings forecasts are the most reliable.Template:Clarifyme Accurate forecasting will also help them meet consumer demand.
• Economic forecasting
• Earthquake prediction
• Egain forecasting
• Land use forecasting
• Player and team performance in sports
• Political forecasting
• Product forecasting
• Sales forecasting
• Technology forecasting
• Telecommunications forecasting
• Transport planning and Transportation forecasting
• Weather forecasting, Flood forecasting and Meteorology

Limitations

Limitations pose barriers beyond which forecasting methods cannot reliably predict.

Performance limits of fluid dynamics equations

As proposed by Edward Lorenz in 1963, long range weather forecasts, those made at a range of two weeks or more, are impossible to definitively predict the state of the atmosphere, owing to the chaotic nature of the fluid dynamics equations involved. Extremely small errors in the initial input, such as temperatures and winds, within numerical models double every five days.

Complexity introduced by the technological singularity

Mining Engineer (Excluding Oil ) Truman from Alma, loves to spend time knotting, largest property developers in singapore developers in singapore and stamp collecting. Recently had a family visit to Urnes Stave Church.

The technological singularity is the theoretical emergence of superintelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the technological singularity is seen as an occurrence beyond which events cannot be predicted.

Ray Kurzweil predicts the singularity will occur around 2045 while Vernor Vinge predicts it will happen some time before 2030.

See also

• CPFR
• Forecasting bias
• Foresight (future studies)
• Futures studies
• Futurology
• Optimism bias
• Planning
• Strategic foresight
• Technology forecasting
• Wind power forecasting
• Earthquake prediction
• Weather forecasting
• Time Series

References

43 year old Petroleum Engineer Harry from Deep River, usually spends time with hobbies and interests like renting movies, property developers in singapore new condominium and vehicle racing. Constantly enjoys going to destinations like Camino Real de Tierra Adentro.

• 20 year-old Real Estate Agent Rusty from Saint-Paul, has hobbies and interests which includes monopoly, property developers in singapore and poker. Will soon undertake a contiki trip that may include going to the Lower Valley of the Omo.
  
  My blog: http://www.primaboinca.com/view_profile.php?userid=5889534
• 20 year-old Real Estate Agent Rusty from Saint-Paul, has hobbies and interests which includes monopoly, property developers in singapore and poker. Will soon undertake a contiki trip that may include going to the Lower Valley of the Omo.
  
  My blog: http://www.primaboinca.com/view_profile.php?userid=5889534
• 20 year-old Real Estate Agent Rusty from Saint-Paul, has hobbies and interests which includes monopoly, property developers in singapore and poker. Will soon undertake a contiki trip that may include going to the Lower Valley of the Omo.
  
  My blog: http://www.primaboinca.com/view_profile.php?userid=5889534
• 20 year-old Real Estate Agent Rusty from Saint-Paul, has hobbies and interests which includes monopoly, property developers in singapore and poker. Will soon undertake a contiki trip that may include going to the Lower Valley of the Omo.
  
  My blog: http://www.primaboinca.com/view_profile.php?userid=5889534
• Hyndman, R.J., Koehler, A.B (2005) "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy", Monash University note.
• 20 year-old Real Estate Agent Rusty from Saint-Paul, has hobbies and interests which includes monopoly, property developers in singapore and poker. Will soon undertake a contiki trip that may include going to the Lower Valley of the Omo.
  
  My blog: http://www.primaboinca.com/view_profile.php?userid=5889534
• 20 year-old Real Estate Agent Rusty from Saint-Paul, has hobbies and interests which includes monopoly, property developers in singapore and poker. Will soon undertake a contiki trip that may include going to the Lower Valley of the Omo.
  
  My blog: http://www.primaboinca.com/view_profile.php?userid=5889534
• 20 year-old Real Estate Agent Rusty from Saint-Paul, has hobbies and interests which includes monopoly, property developers in singapore and poker. Will soon undertake a contiki trip that may include going to the Lower Valley of the Omo.
  
  My blog: http://www.primaboinca.com/view_profile.php?userid=5889534
• Sasic Kaligasidis, A et al. (2006) Upgraded weather forecast control of building heating systems. p. 951 ff in Research in Building Physics and Building Engineering Paul Fazio (Editorial Staff), ISBN 0-415-41675-2
• Taesler, R. (1990/91) Climate and Building Energy Management. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 15-16, pp 599 – 608.
• Turchin, P. (2007) "Scientific Prediction in Historical Sociology: Ibn Khaldun meets Al Saud". In:History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 978-5-484-01002-8
• United States Patent 6098893 Comfort control system incorporating weather forecast data and a method for operating such a system (Inventor Stefan Berglund)

External links

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GPS has assembled a high workforce of personnel who are additionally well-known figures in the native actual property scene to pioneer this up-and-coming organization. At GPS Alliance, WE LEAD THE WAY! Many people have asked me how I managed to earn S$114,000 from my sales job (my third job) at age 24. The reply is easy. After graduation from NUS with a Historical past diploma, my first job was in actual estate. Within the ultimate part of this series, I interview one of the top agents in ERA Horizon Group and share with you the secrets to his success! Learn it RIGHT HERE

Notice that the application must be submitted by the appointed Key Government Officer (KEO) such as the CEO, COO, or MD. Once the KEO has submitted the mandatory paperwork and assuming all documents are in order, an email notification shall be sent stating that the applying is permitted. No hardcopy of the license might be issued. A delicate-copy could be downloaded and printed by logging into the CEA website. It takes roughly four-6 weeks to course of an utility.

• Forecasting Principles: "Evidence-based forecasting"
• International Institute of Forecasters
• Introduction to Time series Analysis (Engineering Statistics Handbook) - A practical guide to Time series analysis and forecasting
• Time Series Analysis
• Global Forecasting with IFs
• Earthquake Electromagnetic Precursor Research